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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.